Commercial air travel has become significantly safer over the decades, according to a recent study by MIT researchers. The study highlights that the risk of a fatality from commercial air travel has decreased dramatically, with the chance of dying during an air journey dropping by about 7 percent annually. This improvement is akin to an “aerial version of Moore’s Law,” where safety doubles every decade. Despite some recent near-collisions and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the overall trend shows a remarkable enhancement in aviation safety.
Decades of Improvement in Aviation Safety
The study, conducted by MIT researchers, reveals that commercial air travel has become roughly twice as safe each decade since the 1960s. This trend is comparable to Moore’s Law in computing, where the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. The researchers found that the risk of a fatality from commercial air travel was 1 per every 13.7 million passenger boardings globally in the 2018-2022 period. This is a significant improvement from 1 per 7.9 million boardings in the 2008-2017 period and a far cry from the 1 per every 350,000 boardings that occurred in the 1968-1977 period.
Arnold Barnett, an MIT professor and co-author of the study, emphasized that aviation safety continues to improve. He noted that the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually. This consistent improvement suggests that there is no irreducible risk level that cannot be surpassed, and safety measures continue to evolve and enhance passenger safety.
Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation Safety
The Covid-19 pandemic introduced new challenges to aviation safety, but the study quantifies this risk separately from the long-term safety trend. During the pandemic, there were concerns about the spread of the virus among passengers, leading to additional safety measures and protocols. The study found that while the pandemic did introduce a temporary new risk, it did not significantly alter the long-term trend of improving aviation safety.
The researchers analyzed the impact of Covid-19 on aviation safety and found that the risk of viral transmission during flights was a notable concern. However, the overall safety of air travel continued to improve, with measures such as enhanced cleaning protocols, mandatory mask-wearing, and social distancing helping to mitigate the risk. The study highlights that the aviation industry has been resilient in adapting to new challenges and maintaining a focus on passenger safety.
Future Prospects for Aviation Safety
Looking ahead, the study suggests that the trend of improving aviation safety is likely to continue. The researchers compare the long-run gains in air safety to Moore’s Law, indicating that commercial air travel will keep getting safer over time. This optimistic outlook is based on the consistent annual reduction in the risk of fatalities and the ongoing efforts to enhance safety measures.
The study also highlights the importance of continuous innovation and adaptation in the aviation industry. As new technologies and safety protocols are developed, the industry can further reduce risks and ensure the safety of passengers. The researchers emphasize that while there are no guarantees of continual improvement, the historical trend suggests that aviation safety will continue to advance, making air travel even safer in the future.
