Trump Warns of Tariffs on Thailand, Cambodia

Washington D.C. – Former President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Cambodia and Thailand on Saturday, threatening to escalate a trade war if the two nations do not immediately halt their escalating border conflict. From a golf resort in Scotland, Trump announced he had spoken with both countries’ leaders, tying any future trade relationship with the United States directly to a ceasefire in a conflict that has already claimed 33 lives and displaced over 168,000 people.

The dramatic intervention came as fighting between the Southeast Asian neighbors entered its third day. In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform, Trump stated he made it clear to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai that economic consequences would follow if peace was not swiftly achieved. “Both Parties are looking for an immediate Ceasefire and Peace,” Trump wrote. “They are also looking to get back to the ‘Trading Table’ with the United States, which we think is inappropriate to do until such time as the fighting STOPS.”

Diplomacy from the Golf Course

While on a five day visit to Scotland that mixes business with diplomatic meetings, Trump engaged in telephone diplomacy from his Turnberry golf resort. He detailed his separate calls, first with Cambodia’s Hun Manet, pushing for “an END to the War,” and then with Thailand’s Phumtham Wechayachai, who he said “wants to have an immediate Ceasefire, and PEACE.”

Trump’s approach mirrors a strategy he has used elsewhere, most notably claiming he defused a potential war between India and Pakistan by using trade as leverage. At the time, he stated he told the nuclear armed rivals, “If you stop it, we’ll do a trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not going to do any trade.” However, India’s foreign ministry later disputed that trade was part of those discussions, casting a shadow of doubt on the effectiveness of this tactic.

A Decades Old Border Dispute Reignites

The recent violence is the latest eruption in a long simmering border dispute between the two nations, with roots stretching back to the colonial era. The conflict is primarily centered around sovereignty over ancient temple sites along their shared 817 kilometer border, most notably the 11th century Preah Vihear temple.

Key historical points of the dispute include:

• 1907 French Maps: Maps drawn by French authorities during the colonial period placed the Preah Vihear temple in Cambodian territory.
• 1962 World Court Ruling: The International Court of Justice awarded sovereignty of the temple to Cambodia, a ruling Thailand has viewed with reservation.
• 2008 UNESCO Listing: Tensions flared when Cambodia successfully listed Preah Vihear as a UNESCO World Heritage site, leading to military clashes.

The current fighting represents the most severe outbreak in over a decade, with both sides accusing the other of initiating hostilities. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has formally requested the United Nations Security Council to intervene and address what he termed “premeditated military aggression” by Thailand.

Economic Pain on the Horizon

The threat of further economic pressure comes at a precarious time for both nations. Just last week, the Trump administration announced a new 36% tariff on most exports from Cambodia and Thailand, set to take effect on August 1. This move is part of a broader trade realignment in the region, with the U.S. applying differentiated tariff rates to various Southeast Asian countries.

The United States is a critical market for both economies. For Thailand, the U.S. is its largest export destination, accounting for over $55 billion in trade in 2024.

A 36% tariff, with the potential for more, could severely impact these industries, leading to job losses and economic slowdown.

A Region on Edge

Trump’s intervention places the U.S. at the center of a complex regional dispute where China also holds significant influence. While Trump expressed optimism, stating the parties “have agreed to immediately meet and quickly work out a Ceasefire,” the path forward remains uncertain. The international community, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is closely watching, hoping to avoid further instability.

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