News
Quantum Clock Ticking: 25% of Bitcoin Supply May Be Vulnerable
<p data-start="108" data-end="145"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Bitcoin, trading near $108k, faces a hidden threat—quantum computing. Roughly a quarter of all BTC could fall prey once quantum machines catch up. This isn’t science fiction—it’s a ticking real-world dilemma.</span></p>
<h2 data-start="147" data-end="182">What’s Behind the Quantum Threat</h2>
<p data-start="184" data-end="259"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Bitcoin depends on public/private keypairs—public keys can be visible on-chain, but private ones are secret. A quantum computer with enough qubits could reverse-engineer private keys from public ones using Shor’s algorithm. That means access to wallets without users even knowing. The concern? Early addresses, especially from pre-2010 era, have public keys widely exposed—making them prime targets.</span></p>
<p data-start="261" data-end="336"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">A Deloitte analysis suggests up to 4 million BTC—around 25% of usable supply—could be compromised once quantum tech matures. That includes coins in abandoned wallets or old addresses. For now, they&#8217;re locked away, possibly forever.</span></p>
<p data-start="261" data-end="336"><a href="https://www.theibulletin.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/quantum-computing-bitcoin-wallet-search-term.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-57658" src="https://www.theibulletin.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/quantum-computing-bitcoin-wallet-search-term.jpg" alt="quantum computing bitcoin wallet"; search term" width="1199" height="832" /></a></p>
<h2 data-start="338" data-end="366">Speed of Quantum Advances</h2>
<p data-start="368" data-end="443"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Back in 2012, breaking RSA-2048 (a similar problem) would’ve needed a billion qubits. By 2019, that dropped to 20 million. Today, experts estimate around 1 million qubits would suffice. That’s a 1,000× improvement in just over a decade. Quantum hardware is moving fast—though qubit stability remains a challenge.</span></p>
<p data-start="445" data-end="520"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">In late-2024, Google revealed its &#8220;Willow&#8221; chip and structural improvements in qubit control. While still far from breaching Bitcoin’s cryptography, this underscores that the window to act may be shorter than previously thought.</span></p>
<h2 data-start="522" data-end="556">Community Under Pressure to Fix</h2>
<p data-start="558" data-end="597"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Preparing Bitcoin for a quantum future is no small task. Some researchers at the University of Kent estimate a network upgrade could take:</span></p>
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<p data-start="601" data-end="642"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">~75 days offline at full speed</span></p>
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<p data-start="645" data-end="724"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Over 300 days if traffic continues uninterrupted</span></p>
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<p data-start="726" data-end="765"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">That’s just the core protocol. Then comes migrating funds: billions of dollars in old BTC would need moving to safer, post-quantum addresses. And many of those coins are stuck—keys lost or wallets forgotten.</span></p>
<h2 data-start="767" data-end="797">Why Investors Should Sit Up</h2>
<p data-start="799" data-end="838"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">This threat isn’t tomorrow—it’s potentially within a decade. For long-term BTC holders, it changes the investment thesis:</span></p>
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<p data-start="842" data-end="881"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">If you own Bitcoin for its secure, decentralized transactions, that trust could evaporate.</span></p>
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<p data-start="884" data-end="923"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">In the worst case, quantum theft floods the market, crashing prices and hurting sentiment.</span></p>
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<p data-start="926" data-end="1005"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Even quantum-resistant altcoins might get swept up in the chaos.</span></p>
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<p data-start="1007" data-end="1086"><span class="relative -mx-px my-[-0.2rem] rounded px-px py-[0.2rem] transition-colors duration-100 ease-in-out">Some projects, notably Solana, are racing toward quantum-resistant systems. But they&#8217;re small potatoes if Bitcoin implodes—altcoins may suffer collateral damage.</span></p>
<h2 data-start="1088" data-end="1112">Is There a Fail-Safe?</h2>
<p data-start="1114" data-end="1148">There’s a roadmap, but it’s messy:</p>
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<p data-start="1152" data-end="1200">Transition Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography.</p>
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<p data-start="1203" data-end="1266">Migrate existing coins in old addresses to quantum-secure ones.</p>
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<p data-start="1269" data-end="1333">Build consensus across developers, miners, nodes—no simple fork.</p>
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</ul>
<p data-start="1335" data-end="1461">Past hard forks (like SegWit or Taproot) took years of debate. A quantum-proof upgrade could be slower and more controversial.</p>
<p data-start="1463" data-end="1608">The fear? Time is running out. Quantum research is gaining momentum and capital—from governments and tech giants alike. Build fast, break crypto.</p>
<h3 data-start="1615" data-end="1663">Snapshot Table: Quantum vs. Bitcoin Security</h3>
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<table class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)" data-start="1665" data-end="2089">
<thead data-start="1665" data-end="1734">
<tr data-start="1665" data-end="1734">
<th data-start="1665" data-end="1676" data-col-size="sm">Year</th>
<th data-start="1676" data-end="1703" data-col-size="sm">Qubits Needed (RSA-2048)</th>
<th data-start="1703" data-end="1734" data-col-size="sm">Quantum Breakthroughs</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody data-start="1806" data-end="2089">
<tr data-start="1806" data-end="1876">
<td data-start="1806" data-end="1817" data-col-size="sm">2012</td>
<td data-start="1817" data-end="1845" data-col-size="sm">~1 billion</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="1845" data-end="1876">Theoretical Shor’s testbeds</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="1877" data-end="1947">
<td data-start="1877" data-end="1888" data-col-size="sm">2019</td>
<td data-start="1888" data-end="1916" data-col-size="sm">~20 million</td>
<td data-start="1916" data-end="1947" data-col-size="sm">Early lab systems</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="1948" data-end="2018">
<td data-start="1948" data-end="1959" data-col-size="sm">2025</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="1959" data-end="1987">~1 million</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="1987" data-end="2018">Google’s Willow chip active</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="2019" data-end="2089">
<td data-start="2019" data-end="2030" data-col-size="sm">2030?</td>
<td data-start="2030" data-end="2058" data-col-size="sm"><;1 million (?)</td>
<td data-start="2058" data-end="2089" data-col-size="sm">Potential BTC vulnerability</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<h2 class="absolute end-0 flex items-end">A simple lowdown: we’re trending toward real danger.</h2>
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<p data-start="2150" data-end="2387">Quantum isn’t a distant worry—it’s moving from lab to ledger. If you own Bitcoin, start paying attention. Look up whether your BTC is in a fresh, safe address. Watch the upgrade proposals unfolding in GitHub issues and developer forums.</p>
<p data-start="2389" data-end="2577">It&#8217;s weird: one day you&#8217;ll check your wallet and think, &#8220;all good,&#8221; but somewhere, a quantum supercomputer could be getting close. That’s the future—slippery, risky, but fixable—if we act.</p>

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