Ripple’s $139 Billion Gamble: Why Some Say It’s Still Wildly Undervalued

Ripple’s price has tripled, but a quiet stat suggests there’s still a long runway — if it can survive the storm.

The numbers are flashy. Ripple’s XRP token is up over 300% in the last year. Its market cap sits around $139 billion. To many onlookers, especially those burned by crypto hype cycles, it screams “overvalued.” But under all the noise, one number tells a different story — and it’s big. Really big.

Bitwise Investments just put out a report that could reshape how serious investors view Ripple’s potential. At the center of the argument? The $250 trillion elephant in the room.

The $250 Trillion Puzzle

Bitwise isn’t making a small claim. The asset manager believes the total value of global cross-border payments will top $250 trillion by 2027. That’s not a typo.

This isn’t just future-gazing. Back in 2022, cross-border flows already passed $150 trillion. These aren’t crypto transactions — they’re traditional ones. The kind that fuel global trade, remittances, foreign aid, and multinational payrolls.

If Ripple — with its XRP-powered payment rail — managed to handle just 1% of that projected 2027 market, we’re talking $2.5 trillion in annual network volume. Not revenue, but still: that’s massive throughput.

Of course, that’s all hypothetical. Ripple isn’t there yet. But it’s gunning for that market with a pretty bold pitch: faster, cheaper, more transparent than SWIFT. And no middlemen.

What’s Standing in Ripple’s Way?

This is where things get messy. Ripple’s ambitions are sky-high. But it’s still fighting an uphill battle on multiple fronts.

For one, it hasn’t brought any major U.S. banks on board. Not JPMorgan. Not Citi. Not even second-tier giants like PNC or Capital One.

Then there’s the SEC. That regulatory saga feels never-ending, and though Ripple scored a partial win in 2023, the legal clouds haven’t fully cleared.

Ripple’s also trying to convince some of the oldest institutions in finance — banks that move trillions every year — to switch to a system many still view as experimental.

That’s no easy sell.

Add to that the crypto market’s usual volatility and the memory of past collapses, and you get a recipe for hesitation. Even believers in the tech are proceeding with caution.

What Makes Ripple Different?

Despite the noise, Ripple does have a few things going for it.

• Unlike many crypto projects, Ripple’s got a clearly defined use case: international money transfers.

• It’s not just theory — it’s already running real transactions in countries like Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines.

• Partnerships with firms like SBI Holdings and Tranglo give it a foothold in key remittance corridors.

These aren’t headline-grabbers, but they’re crucial. Ripple’s approach isn’t based on hype coins or memes — it’s infrastructure.

And while it doesn’t yet control a meaningful slice of the $150 trillion pie, it’s positioned at the buffet table.

How XRP Stacks Up Against the S&P 500

To get a sense of just how explosive XRP’s growth has been this year, take a look at this comparison:

The Risk Factor: What Could Go Wrong?

Let’s not sugarcoat it. There are red flags.

First off, Ripple still makes a lot of its money from selling XRP. That’s a problem if network activity doesn’t match token price increases. Critics argue it inflates valuation without the fundamentals to back it.

Second, regulatory threats. If the SEC reclassifies XRP as a security — or reopens the case with sharper teeth — it could spook institutional partners.

Third, competition. Ripple isn’t the only player trying to overhaul cross-border payments. Stellar, SWIFT GPI, and even central banks with digital currencies are breathing down its neck.

And finally, liquidity risks. The crypto market’s notorious for sharp pullbacks. If sentiment turns, XRP’s $2.37 could just as quickly turn back into $0.90.

That’s why analysts call Ripple a “high-conviction, high-risk” bet. It’s not for the faint-hearted.

Still Undervalued?

So, is Ripple overvalued or underrated?

Depends who you ask. If you go by price movement alone, it’s expensive. If you look at market cap versus TAM potential — maybe not.

And that’s the weird part. Even with a $139 billion cap, XRP is trading at what could be a steep discount if — and it’s a big if — it gains even a sliver of the $250 trillion global transaction market.

As Bitwise said in their report, “Capturing a small percentage of the global cross-border payments market could have a very significant impact…”

The market’s still figuring out whether that’s wishful thinking or a future headline.