Why Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million Might Be Less Far-Fetched Than It Sounds

Bitcoin doesn’t need a miracle. It doesn’t need reinvention, a tech overhaul, or a wild new use case. It just needs to keep doing what it’s been doing—getting scarcer while people keep buying. At just under $97,000 per coin, the idea of it hitting $1 million may sound delusional. But a growing number of analysts and insiders are arguing it’s more likely than people think—and possibly closer than anyone expects.

On May 1, another voice joined that camp: Andre Dragosch, Head of Research Europe at Bitwise Asset Management, put out a seven-figure target for Bitcoin by 2029. That’s four years away. So what’s the logic behind this call? And is it just hype, or is something bigger going on under the surface?

A Shrinking Pool: Bitcoin Supply Is Running Dry

Bitcoin’s supply cap has always been one of its most talked-about features. There can only ever be 21 million coins. Right now, over 94% of that is already mined.

And thanks to the April 2024 halving, miners now produce just 450 coins per day. That number will drop again by half in 2028.

That sounds tight, but it’s even tighter when you zoom in. Around 20% of all Bitcoin is estimated to be lost forever—wallets gone, keys forgotten, never to be touched again. Meanwhile, more and more of the circulating supply is being scooped up and held in cold storage by long-term believers. Some of those are individuals. But a growing portion? Institutions.

From corporate treasuries to ETF custodians to crypto-native funds, the list of entities locking away Bitcoin is expanding fast. Once those coins are off the market, they may as well not exist from a trading standpoint.

Supply vs. Float: The Subtle but Crucial Difference

Not all supply is created equal. What really moves price is float—the portion of an asset that’s actively available to buy or sell at any given time. And Bitcoin’s float is shrinking. Fast.

If someone wants to buy a large chunk of Bitcoin today, they can’t just look at total supply and assume it’s all up for grabs. They’re working with what’s actually for sale, and there’s less and less of it each year. That’s why price can shoot up even when supply metrics look stable on paper.

The effect is amplified when the buyers are large institutions with billions to deploy. They can’t just log into an exchange and click “buy.” Their demand puts real pressure on the float, and prices respond accordingly.

One quick point before moving on:

• According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, over 70% of Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in over a year. That’s an all-time high and a strong indicator of long-term holder conviction.

The Gold Comparison Isn’t New—But It’s Gaining Weight

People have been calling Bitcoin “digital gold” for years. But lately, it’s starting to look like they mean it.

Gold has always had value in part because it’s scarce, difficult to extract, and widely accepted. Bitcoin shares some of that DNA—but it adds the twist of programmability, mobility, and fixed issuance.

Now, with more ETFs approved and traditional asset managers stepping in, the gold analogy is getting real-world validation.

Here’s a quick look at how Bitcoin stacks up today against gold:

Price Projections: Real Analysis or Hype Train?

This is where things get tricky. A $1 million price tag sounds flashy. It grabs headlines. It gets clicks. But is it analysis or just ambition?

Andre Dragosch isn’t the first to toss out that number. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has floated similar ideas. So have outspoken Bitcoiners like Michael Saylor. But skeptics argue that much of this is “talking their book”—they hold lots of Bitcoin and benefit when hype drives price.

Still, let’s break it down: for Bitcoin to hit $1 million, the market cap would have to jump from $1.9 trillion to about $19 trillion. That sounds massive—but it’s actually within the realm of other global asset classes. Gold’s market cap is estimated at $14–15 trillion. Global equities are over $100 trillion. It’s not as farfetched as it seems.

If Bitcoin continues attracting institutional money, especially in a low-interest, high-liquidity environment, that kind of capital inflow isn’t impossible.

So… Will It Actually Happen?

That’s the billion-dollar—or maybe trillion-dollar—question. And the truth? No one knows for sure. Predicting exact prices is a fool’s errand.

But the direction of travel is clear.

Bitcoin’s issuance is shrinking. Demand, especially from institutions, is increasing. Its float is drying up. And another halving is coming in 2028. All of that creates a long-term setup that’s hard to ignore.

Of course, risks remain.

If governments flip from friendly to hostile on crypto, or if financial conditions tighten dramatically, adoption could slow. Prices could drop. Nothing is guaranteed. But so far, even with major regulatory setbacks and wild volatility, Bitcoin has survived. And thrived.

Basically, you don’t need it to hit $1 million for it to be a good investment. You just need it to be worth more later than it is today. And right now? That’s looking more likely than not.